Category Archives: Rugby Review

Heineken cup rugby betting – Jump around

Heineken cup rugby betting – round 1 wrap.

You can get highlights of all the weekend’s games on the ERC website here for free.
http://www.ercrugby.com/matchdaytv

We’ve had two of our best weekends in succession now and we’re hoping we can crack on next week with more winners. This weekend we put up 13 game previews (11 in the Heineken and two in the Challenge cup) and 12 of the main bets came in with only an unlucky Munster preventing us from having our first ever clean sweep of wins. On top of that, we gave you the midweek banker rugby bet at 3/2 last Tuesday which cantered home when Toulouse beat Leicester in the last hurdle of the six leg acca. Not to forget Tomkins and Cuthbert, our small-stakes anytime tryscorers. It won’t always be like this, such is the nature of sports betting – but for now, let’s enjoy it.

Initially we found ourselves conflicting with most of the major pundits in Britain and Ireland on many of last weekend’s games. For example, there was very little respect in either country given to Exeter before their game and by the bookies giving them a +17 head start. We started to really doubt ourselves in the face of such widespread sentiment that pretty much gave no creedence to the threat Exeter faced against a much weakened Leinster side. It’s always nice to be proven right, and Exeter were very unlucky not to get the draw here at least. It was also quite satisfying to NOT take the 1-12 point winning margin that that the bookies seemed to be promising in the Toulouse v Leicester game; every bookie was -7 before the game, but we smelled a rat and stayed on the -6.5 as we expected Toulouse to win by more, and so it proved (thank you very much Ben Youngs!).

The midweek banker came home beautifully on Sunday, and that’s two from three on the banker front for us (something we only started last month).

As above, Munster were the only team to let us (and themselves) down, but we still stand by our preview that they should have won this. Paul O’Connell’s score was incorrectly ruled out after he dropped it but regathered to touch down, and that would have taken Munster 14 points ahead and out of sight in that weather. Shortly after that O’Gara went off. Then top that off with a calamitous semi-charge-down, keystone cop attempts to regather before the kick chase, and then a very questionable decision to award the Racing try by the TMO (the fact is, the Frenchman didn’t touch it down). Munster were very unlucky despite their bad play at times, and they’re not finished in this pool. A word on Conor Murray – yes, it was he who made the horrendous decision to run from his 22 with three minutes remaining and not kick the ball out, when Munster were ahead on the scoreboard. But if you watch that tape back, Murray was everywhere in this game, giving fantastic service, and chasing down every single kick that Munster put down the Racing end. For any of us that have ever played any sort of sport, there are those games when you give everything you’ve got and come the end you’re a mental and physical wreck. It was just one of those days for Munster, and we fancy them for a bonus point next weekend.

Next weekend will be alot tougher to call. We’d expect handicaps to be pushed out this week (most of the favourites beat the handicap this week and the bookies generally took a beating) and with teams having had one weekend of Heineken cup intensity behind them, it’ll be harder to call the form. Also, for some teams, losing this coming weekend will already mean an end to their campaigns.

If you’ve enjoyed the site this weekend, don’t forget to join our forum and pitch in with any opinion – yours is as valid as ours. And also don’t forget – if you decide to join any online bookmakers, we’d appreciate it if you did through our links – we get a small set fee everytime someone does, and it helps keep the site running and pay for celebratory pints. We’re not owned by a big company like BSKYB/teamtalk (planetrugby.com), we’re just a few lads who built our own websites and are trying to get you paid.

We’ll have a banker offering up for you as early as possible this week, possibly as early as Tuesday.

For all rugby betting previews/articles, you can bookmark this link which will take you past the front page (if us taking the piss out of Morgan Parra is not your thing) and straight to an easy to navigate list.
http://dropkickrugby.com/rugbytips/

Super Rugby Betting Preview -Wk 18

** Chiefs kill the accumulator early unfortunately, conceding an injury time try in the 84th minute (that probably wasn’t a try, but that’s TMO’s for you). Still going for Reds and Brumbies straight win acca, and singles and accumulator on reds,brumbies, and crusaders to beat the handicap in paddy power- Crusaders lowest -25 there**

This weekend (18) sees the end of the regular season games in Super rugby, and there’s quite a few variables making a conventional betting approach an absolute nightmare. We’ve decided on a bit of an accumulator experiment this weekend based on motivation, game time knowledge (all games are on in sequence, not simultaneously) as well as form. Some teams may not want a bonus point, depending on how other games go, and where they want to play their quarter final, so handicaps look generally best to steer clear of this week (though not every game).

We won’t be backing any games with tiny odds either, so we’ll leave them alone. We’ll try to keep it as simple as we can, while not leaving too much detail out.
Super Rugby Table Week 18
There are 8 teams in the final week in for places in the super rugby playoffs. The Chiefs and Stormers are guaranteed to be in the mix, and are occupying first and second spot in the table respectively. But the Chiefs don’t have an easy game at the Hurricanes to cement top spot so they’ll have to fight hard to maintain the top spot. In fact, all of the possible outcomes are quite complicated, so let’s take it game by game from the top, only concentrating on the meaningful games as the others are a minefield.

Chiefs v Hurricanes Super Rugby Preview.

1st 63pts v 8th 53 pts 835am Friday the 13th!
The top two super rugby conference teams out of Aus/ SA/ NZ after this week’s games get a week off next week. The Chiefs will want to keep top spot in the table as they will then play the weakest league-ranked qualifier from the two Quarter Final games (from 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th (similar to ‘les barrages’ in the TOP 14). They play away to the Victor-Vito-bolstered Hurricanes who are in 8th position on 53 points. Of the teams in the Top six, the Hurricanes can only realistically overhaul the Crusaders, Bulls and Sharks, as you’d realistically expect the Brumbies (In third) to pick up at least a bonus point at home making the gap six, so even if the Hurricanes got a 5 point win it wouldn’t be enough.

The problem for the Hurricanes is that the aforementioned trio (Crusaders, Bulls, Sharks) have very winnable games at home, and of course, they’re up against the super rugby league leaders the Chiefs. For us, there’s just too much on the line for the Chiefs if they lose, and there’s just too little chance of the Hurricanes progressing for them to have similar motivation. Ultimately, the final of the tournament is going to be played at the home ground of the top ranked winner of the semi finals. So assuming the Chiefs win, and get next week off, they have two home games including the final if they win their semi. If that aint motivation, I don’t know what is. You can get the Chiefs -2 in skybet, but we’re sticking the Chiefs down to win on the accumulator. See bottom of post for best combination bookmaker accumulator.

Brumbies v Blues Super Rugby Preview

3rd place 58pts, v 13th place 28pts 630 am GMT Sat 14th July
The brumbies are top of the Australian conference, and if they remain there as third conference winner, they play the sixth place qualifier in the Quarters. You could look at this game as a potential banana skin based on motivation, but the simple fact is they are the second game in the sequence this weekend, so they won’t know whether the Reds will have won or lost obviously.The Reds can only take them off the top of the conference if they lose this game at home to the lowly Blues by more than 7 points, thus not picking up a bonus point, as they are five points ahead of the Reds, and they are currently tied on 10 wins each (number of wins decides any ties on points). If the Reds win with a bonus, and the Brumbies lose by more than 7, then the Reds can theoretically get the top of the Australian conference. Can’t see it happening though.

The handicap is -7 points across the board for the Brumbies, but you maybe shouldn’t touch it because the Blues will be playing with nothing to lose, and the Brumbies only need a losing bonus point to make the playoffs. If the Brumbies were playing a half decent team here, you’d be a bit worried but because it’s the blues, and because the Brumbies have a chance to claim second Super Rugby conference leader above the Stormers ( however unlikely, but the Brumbies play first, so you can only play what is in front of you) we’ll be jamming the brumbies straight win into our accumulator at the bottom. If you think they’ll ignore the fact that the Stormers will likely win at home, then the -7 in Bet365 is probably a steal, because they need a bonus point to overhaul the Stormers and get a home semi final. Unlikely, but remember, they play first, before the Stormers, so they have to play their part and go for it.

Crusaders v Western Force Super Rugby Preview

835 am Saturday , July 14th, 4th 56 pts, v 14th 27 pts.
We won’t be touching this in our accumulator, as the handicap is quite high around 25/26, and the bonus point won’t really do much for the Crusaders, seeing as the straight win keeps them above the Bulls and Sharks in 5th and 6th, and they can’t overhaul the Chiefs for the top of the NZ conference. Still, we wouldn’t put anyone off backing them on the handicap -25 in paddypower (the Crusaders), weather permitting. Western Force lost last week to the 13th place Blues by 20 points. Again though, the Crusaders could take their foot off the gas to conserve energy for the Quarters, and do not need a bonus point for anything unless they are targetting specific Quarter final scenarios, that still might change after their game. Probably best to steer clear if we’re all looking at motivation this weekend.

Reds v Waratahs, Super Rugby Preview.

7th v 11th, 1040 am gmt 14 July, Sat. 7th 53pts v 11th 35 pts.
This game could be the one we slip up on, but the Reds have been in decent form, doing the necessary conservative tight win last week, and pulling a 5 point bonus point win in three of their last five Super Rugby games. They could have gone after more last week, and made their task this week more realistic, but here we are. By the time this game kicks off, the Brumbies will likely have at least a losing bonus point ( likely the win) and the Crusaders will be far from reach after winning at home, so by this point the Sharks will realistically only be able to catch the Sharks and Bulls, who have easy enough games after them. The best handicap around is -8 at bet365, but we’re sticking the Reds win in an accumulator. The Reds have to win, to at least stand a chance of qualification should the Sharks or Bulls slip up after them with a loss. The one thing in the Reds favour is that if they get a bonus point win, and either the Sharks or the Bulls only get a four point win, they’ll go through to the playoffs having more wins than those two. The Handicap looks great (still -8 available at bet365) but the Waratahs won’t make it easy for them . Still, we might have a small interest on it.

Stormers v Rebels markets/motivation need to be watched after the Hurricanes Chiefs game
Sharks v Cheetahs needs to be watched to see who they want to dodge and what the Reds do
Bulls v Lions is the same, so a watching brief on all of these.

Tune in to the site all day on Saturday, we’ll be updating super rugby developments on twitter (follow us there if you like and you have a twitter account) and we’ll sling up a post if any value on motivation and need presents itself (to our no doubt bleary eyes at that stage) based on the day’s early results. We do still like the handicaps mentioned above, and will have a small wager on them, and a decent sized one on this accumulator.

And now (drum roll please Doris,….)

The experimental super rugby accumulator (not tested on animals)….

Chiefs 4/6, Brumbies 4/11, Reds 1/4 in skybet is best price 1.84/1 ( so 1 Pound gets you 2 pound 78 back)
Or, if you fancy a bigger stake and want to make use of the bigger Free bet, you get SLIGHTLY less at Bet365

Chiefs, 4/7 Brumbies, 4/11, Reds 3/10 in Bet365 gets you 1.78/1 , or 28 quid for a tenner.

**If you fancy a Handicap punt, the two teams we think have the most dependable motivation, (and the fact that try bonus points make a real difference to them before other teams play) this weekend are the Reds and the Brumbies, both -7 at Betfred. The Reds are -9 and bigger everywhere else)**

**If you fancy a Handicap punt, the two teams we think with the most dependable motivation, (and the fact that try bonus points make a real difference to them) this weekend are the Reds and the Brumbies, both -7 at Betfred. The Reds are -9 and bigger everywhere else)**

Those are the two best priced accumulators available across the market for those three teams; it’s not worth adding in any of the small odds home favourites. We’ll keep an eye on the odds and update the top of this post if anything better comes available, but the likelihood is they’ll probably come in a bit if they move.

Should be good fun Saturday anyway, don’t forget to stop in or give us a shout on twitter.

Rugby Review, International weekend three betting, Jun 22-24

In our rugby review this week we’ll take a look at the three main games previewed from the weekend. We’ll see what we’ve learned, and we’ll look at the implications of other results from around the rugby world.

South Africa v England rugby review, 14-14 draw

1. Rugby Review -(Main bet) South Africa have won both preceding rugby matches by 1-12 points, and you can get 7/4. South Africa should win this with the weaknesses in the England rugby side, but the way they have fallen apart defensively in the second halves of both games makes this one the percentage pick. It’s as short as 6/4 elsewhere. This one should really have come off for us with South Africa camped on the England 22 four minutes from time after some excellent rugby. They had about four chances to go for the drop after a series of good drives, but lack of leadership and bottle saw England turn the ball over with a penalty. Quite disappointing, but them’s the breaks. England were unlucky not to win in the end, with Farrell being the wrong man for the job of drop kick master. Then again, had Morne Steyn not continued his abysmal kicking form, the 1-12 would have come in nicely. Real question marks over his place for the Four Nations.

2. If you fancy England to get a win, then there’s value in the Halftime/fulltime SA/England at 12/1. Both games have followed a pattern of the Springboks best in the first half, and England playing most of the rugby in the second half. England have some decent bench fodder relative to South Africa, and the likes of Barritt, Botha and Marler can come on and make a big difference if things are still in the mix. Well, if you watched the game, you saw how close this one came. Cracking value for an interest bet; let’s hope Owen Farrell gets a rest as he has looked seriously below par for the entire series, and leading up to it versus the Barbarians.

3. I like Waldrom anytime try scorer at 11/2 for value. Waldrom was in for a try in the second half until Morne Steyn dived into the flight of the pass and the ref gave a penalty. Waldrom was one of the best players on the field, if not the best; keep an eye on his markets whenever he’s in an England shirt this autumn.

4. Alternatively, there’s merit to the thinking that England will know they need a fast start, and for them to be leading at half time and SA at full time is biggest 13/2- This game was always going to be close, and we came within a point or two of this either side, with Flood missing a try conversion, and the Springboks failing to notch a drop at the death. There’s always good value in this market so it’s good to keep an eye on it.

5. Danny Care at 5/1 anytime try in boylesports is also decent value (shortened to 16/5 in paddypower)- he has something to prove, got one try midweek, and he’ll be on the ball sniping close to the opposition line for a fair bit of the second half you’d think, with a few quick taps to go with that. Really good value punt this. Danny duly delivered nicely for us, with a few goes at scoring, after he got the first try from a quick tap snipe. We were just unhappy we hadn’t backed the first try which was nearly 30/1 in places – but the happiness duly returned on the way back from the bookies!

So, despite losing all three games in the series, England don’t look in the worst of shape, with three strong second half showings (when they could easily have wilted) and alot of new players blooded and new combinations tried. They should do well in the Autumn.

South Africa on the other hand need to address fitness concerns, with three bad second half performances, and a bad overall series for Morne Steyn at ten. At least they know what they need to work on, and they can thank England for that.

New Zealand v Ireland rugby review, 60-0

  1. (main bet)Ireland+17  is the pick if you’re looking at handicaps here. If you think that last week was a blip however, Skybet have -15 available- which is an 8 point step-down from last week. Well, most pundits and people in general are still in shock about this one. Ireland’s game two weeks ago did indeed turn out to be a blip, and kudos to anyone on the skybet -15. We weren’t some of those people unfortunately! Ireland seemed to have nothing left in the tank after a long season, and the previous week’s monumental exertions against the world champions, and simply imploded. It was a hardest rugby game  of the weekend to predict, but my initial doubts about Kidney have come to the fore once again after I had stupidly let my guard down after last week’s three point loss. Surely it’s time to go for him. There’s real talent in this Irish team, and it just isn’t being utilized.
  2. If you’re looking for an anytime try scorer punt, Cian Healy is biggest 12/1. Cian Healy was undoubtedly Ireland’s best player and never stopped trying. Along with the two second rows he was the only one who made any yards, time and again throwing himself brutally into everything. Alas, Ireland had such a small amount of ball, he only got near the line once. Ireland actually didn’t score and while New Zealand were awesome, Roman Poite was an absolute disgrace and gave Ireland absolutely nothing, and they were hard done by on a number of occasions- the offside rule doesn’t seem to apply to New Zealand for one, and the breakdown saw two sets of rules. The final straw was in the second half when Roman Poite bent over to Richie McCaw who was sitting on the ground and said “are you ok Reechee?” The referees union compounded Ireland’s misery after last week’s outcry against Owens, that’s for sure. Poite needs to go along with Kidney, he’s very poor, to say the least
  3. Healy is a whopping 50/1 for first try. I had him against Clermont in the Heineken cup semi final at 40/1. This one was dashed after 5 minutes of non-defending and headless-chicken passing from Ireland.
  4. Anytime drop goal is 13/8 – Never needed was it?

Ireland are left now with an aggregate score of 124-29 after this brutal series.  This last game was always going to be a tough one to call so we went light enough on the punting, but we felt Ireland had turned a corner of sorts so cautiously sided with them. It wasn’t to be however, and overall the tour was a failure; mainly thanks to New Zealand being amazing, but a nice chunk of credit should also go to refereeing decisions in both the second and third tests.

Some players came through to cement their international credentials- like Donnacha Ryan and Dan Touhy. But Ireland will continue to flounder and only pull off one-off games as long as Kidney is in charge. Very little has been achieved save for the ’09 grand slam, which was arguably helped by Eddie O’Sullivan’s previous good work. You just wonder now whether Kidney will he be allowed to run out his contract beyond the six nations next year, or will he and the IRFU do what is right for the nation of Ireland and have him bow out gracefully.

New Zealand on the other hand look in fine fettle. On Saturday they never showed signs that they were missing the likes of Thorn, Read, Mealamu, Vito and even Carter. As long as it’s not raining, they’ll be seriously difficult to beat. Look out for the upcoming four nations preview soon on dropkickrugby.com.

 

Australia v Wales rugby review, 20-19

  1. (main bet)If you’re strictly a handicap only man then the Australia -3 in looks better than the Wales +4 at evens. I get the feeling that with Beale back, there’s more danger of Australia running riot than Wales, and as I’ve been saying all along, Wales look tired and are carrying a few injuries, and let’s not forget there’s a 43 year old record for this Australian team to maintain of no loss to a Welsh team at home. This one didn’t come off,  and Kurtley Beale actually managed to mess up more Australian attacks than we’ve ever seen by an Aussie full back – Throwing forward passes, speculative passes that were never on, over-running team-mates, running catches into touch on his own 22! And generally making bad decisions, he was the main cause of our -3 punt crashing. That said, it was his break that let to Horne’s try and to be fair he is only back after an injury. But perhaps Deans made a mistake rushing him back; looking at it two different ways, he does have game time under his belt for the Four Nations, but his confidence can’t be too high at this point. I’d still expect him to have big games against South Africa and Argentina…
  2. Kurtley Beale anytime try 5/2. See above. Still managed to come close a couple of times.
  3. Alex Cuthbert anytime try 11/4, In my opinion Wales’ best player over the series, he was held up inches short just before Ryan Jones scored for Wales under the posts through the hole he created.
  4. Digby Ioane anytime try is biggest 2/1. Made one or two fantastic breaks but support never arrived. Well watched by Wales.

Similar to the two other games, Australia let Wales back into the game a number of times off failures in their own attack inside the Welsh 22. We almost got our losing try scorer bets refunded too but for Australia nicking this at the death (paddypower had a money back special on those if Wales won the game).
All three of this weekend’s games were always going to be difficult to call, with the series being wrapped up in all three tours. Here, Australia looked particularly vulnerable on turnover ball, when their attacking moves break down, and they might get away with it versus Wales most of the time, but Argentina and particularly New Zealand will do damage. With three narrow victories over a tired Welsh team, and a loss to Scotland, they don’t look in the best shape going into the Four Nations.

Wales on the other hand will need to rest those injured that we’ve been highlighting all tour (with Warburton again having to come off and showing the injuries he is carrying that we highlighted). You’d fancy them at home to maybe get at least one win in the Autumn, but I still make Australia slim favourites, injury permitting after the Four Nations.

Samoa v Scotland rugby review, 16-17

If you’re a follower on twitter, you may have noticed a few of us were pulling all – nighters on Friday night into Saturday to watch a few of the games that were on. We found a stream courtesy of the Samoan tourist board that was confirmed around 12 midnight on a few places around the web’s discussion boards, and kicked back with a few beers for an entertaining and profitable game of rugby.

This was a really exciting game, and again per twitter, we were on the Scotland 1-12 winning margin (which we also doubled up with Australia 1-12 as a last minute punt that payed off). In truth Scotland looked tired after their tour, and were semi-fortunate to win this. It came down to Scotland pounding the Samoan line for about ten minutes at the end, but Scotland were also fortunate to have remained down there for so long, with Samoa knocking on two or three times when they could have cleared at the end of frenzies of defending. The winning try came from a scrum move and the defense bought the decoys and a chasm opened up for Harley to run through. It was a sad end to a brave Samoan performance. Though you never felt Scotland were out of it, Samoa could have won this. They have some serious players there, and after watching this game they are never to be discounted.

Scotland on the other hand come back with a 100% tour record, but I’m not really convinced as to whether they’ll do well in the Autumn. Hopefully the bookies will over-compensate a bit and give us a nice edge to oppose them next game.

Argentina v France rugby review, 10-49

I had backed France 1-12 in this for a small interest, expecting France to get a good lead up and maybe take their foot off the gas a bit, but that was never going to happen here. We watched it on Saturday night, and we were immediately struck by the urgency and ruthlessness on show from France. There was no live betting available though so we just had to sit back and enjoy the ride. And it was a great game to watch as France never let up and went for the jugular. Argentina had no answer, and in retrospect the all nighter on Friday cost us big time and took our concentration away, because this French team was always going to hammer the pretty much third string Argies and we missed a major opportunity here to clean up on the available France -5.

For the rugby betting future?

A couple of things to take from this game and this weekend- France are well and truly back- and look re-invigorated and there was a serious sense of togetherness and teamwork about this performance. Favourites for the six nations no doubt about it for me, and the biggest price available is 3/1 in bet365 and skybet (free no deposit 10 euro/pound bet available) and it has already been snapped up by us. The bookies are making Wales favourites but I just can’t see it, with France having Wales at home, and Wales having a very lucky year this year. Their luck ran out against a medium-to-good Australian side that contrived to let them back in the game a few times. They have injuries throughout their marquee wing – Warburton, North, Jenkins, and Davies. Priestland at the helm has done little enough since the world cup that says they’ll nail this upcoming six nations and Gatland looks like he’ll stick with him. With a resurgent France back on the block, and the best talent pool available, they look like they could finally start to consistently fulfill reasonable expectations. I can’t see the 3/1 lasting for too long.

Regarding Argentina, take no notice of this result- this was a training exercise for the last members of the squad for the Four Nations to put their hands up. Argentina haven’t played their first team once for this tour, and their second string managed to completely dominate an Italian frist XV shorn only of Parisse, and they beat a quality French side last week (albeit luckily). New Zealand’s favourites tag for the Four Nations is well placed for sure, but Argentina are going to be underestimated by the bookies in their first game after this hammering (second/third team). I think the Argies will be majorly up for their inaugural tournament, and they always catch teams off their guard. There’s 100/1 available in Stanjames for them to win the tournament, and they’re as low as 50/1 elsewhere. For me this is just a stupid price, the Argies could well beat Australia and South Africa if they play to their abilities, and New Zealand could have an off day. Worth consideration for a fiver or even a euro if you think 100/1 is a daft price! And That’s this week’s punting rugby review.

Four Nations rugby betting preview coming soon.