** Chiefs kill the accumulator early unfortunately, conceding an injury time try in the 84th minute (that probably wasn’t a try, but that’s TMO’s for you). Still going for Reds and Brumbies straight win acca, and singles and accumulator on reds,brumbies, and crusaders to beat the handicap in paddy power- Crusaders lowest -25 there**
This weekend (18) sees the end of the regular season games in Super rugby, and there’s quite a few variables making a conventional betting approach an absolute nightmare. We’ve decided on a bit of an accumulator experiment this weekend based on motivation, game time knowledge (all games are on in sequence, not simultaneously) as well as form. Some teams may not want a bonus point, depending on how other games go, and where they want to play their quarter final, so handicaps look generally best to steer clear of this week (though not every game).
We won’t be backing any games with tiny odds either, so we’ll leave them alone. We’ll try to keep it as simple as we can, while not leaving too much detail out.
There are 8 teams in the final week in for places in the super rugby playoffs. The Chiefs and Stormers are guaranteed to be in the mix, and are occupying first and second spot in the table respectively. But the Chiefs don’t have an easy game at the Hurricanes to cement top spot so they’ll have to fight hard to maintain the top spot. In fact, all of the possible outcomes are quite complicated, so let’s take it game by game from the top, only concentrating on the meaningful games as the others are a minefield.
Chiefs v Hurricanes Super Rugby Preview.
1st 63pts v 8th 53 pts 835am Friday the 13th!
The top two super rugby conference teams out of Aus/ SA/ NZ after this week’s games get a week off next week. The Chiefs will want to keep top spot in the table as they will then play the weakest league-ranked qualifier from the two Quarter Final games (from 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th (similar to ‘les barrages’ in the TOP 14). They play away to the Victor-Vito-bolstered Hurricanes who are in 8th position on 53 points. Of the teams in the Top six, the Hurricanes can only realistically overhaul the Crusaders, Bulls and Sharks, as you’d realistically expect the Brumbies (In third) to pick up at least a bonus point at home making the gap six, so even if the Hurricanes got a 5 point win it wouldn’t be enough.
The problem for the Hurricanes is that the aforementioned trio (Crusaders, Bulls, Sharks) have very winnable games at home, and of course, they’re up against the super rugby league leaders the Chiefs. For us, there’s just too much on the line for the Chiefs if they lose, and there’s just too little chance of the Hurricanes progressing for them to have similar motivation. Ultimately, the final of the tournament is going to be played at the home ground of the top ranked winner of the semi finals. So assuming the Chiefs win, and get next week off, they have two home games including the final if they win their semi. If that aint motivation, I don’t know what is. You can get the Chiefs -2 in skybet, but we’re sticking the Chiefs down to win on the accumulator. See bottom of post for best combination bookmaker accumulator.
Brumbies v Blues Super Rugby Preview
3rd place 58pts, v 13th place 28pts 630 am GMT Sat 14th July
The brumbies are top of the Australian conference, and if they remain there as third conference winner, they play the sixth place qualifier in the Quarters. You could look at this game as a potential banana skin based on motivation, but the simple fact is they are the second game in the sequence this weekend, so they won’t know whether the Reds will have won or lost obviously.The Reds can only take them off the top of the conference if they lose this game at home to the lowly Blues by more than 7 points, thus not picking up a bonus point, as they are five points ahead of the Reds, and they are currently tied on 10 wins each (number of wins decides any ties on points). If the Reds win with a bonus, and the Brumbies lose by more than 7, then the Reds can theoretically get the top of the Australian conference. Can’t see it happening though.
The handicap is -7 points across the board for the Brumbies, but you maybe shouldn’t touch it because the Blues will be playing with nothing to lose, and the Brumbies only need a losing bonus point to make the playoffs. If the Brumbies were playing a half decent team here, you’d be a bit worried but because it’s the blues, and because the Brumbies have a chance to claim second Super Rugby conference leader above the Stormers ( however unlikely, but the Brumbies play first, so you can only play what is in front of you) we’ll be jamming the brumbies straight win into our accumulator at the bottom. If you think they’ll ignore the fact that the Stormers will likely win at home, then the -7 in Bet365 is probably a steal, because they need a bonus point to overhaul the Stormers and get a home semi final. Unlikely, but remember, they play first, before the Stormers, so they have to play their part and go for it.
Crusaders v Western Force Super Rugby Preview
835 am Saturday , July 14th, 4th 56 pts, v 14th 27 pts.
We won’t be touching this in our accumulator, as the handicap is quite high around 25/26, and the bonus point won’t really do much for the Crusaders, seeing as the straight win keeps them above the Bulls and Sharks in 5th and 6th, and they can’t overhaul the Chiefs for the top of the NZ conference. Still, we wouldn’t put anyone off backing them on the handicap -25 in paddypower (the Crusaders), weather permitting. Western Force lost last week to the 13th place Blues by 20 points. Again though, the Crusaders could take their foot off the gas to conserve energy for the Quarters, and do not need a bonus point for anything unless they are targetting specific Quarter final scenarios, that still might change after their game. Probably best to steer clear if we’re all looking at motivation this weekend.
Reds v Waratahs, Super Rugby Preview.
7th v 11th, 1040 am gmt 14 July, Sat. 7th 53pts v 11th 35 pts.
This game could be the one we slip up on, but the Reds have been in decent form, doing the necessary conservative tight win last week, and pulling a 5 point bonus point win in three of their last five Super Rugby games. They could have gone after more last week, and made their task this week more realistic, but here we are. By the time this game kicks off, the Brumbies will likely have at least a losing bonus point ( likely the win) and the Crusaders will be far from reach after winning at home, so by this point the Sharks will realistically only be able to catch the Sharks and Bulls, who have easy enough games after them. The best handicap around is -8 at bet365, but we’re sticking the Reds win in an accumulator. The Reds have to win, to at least stand a chance of qualification should the Sharks or Bulls slip up after them with a loss. The one thing in the Reds favour is that if they get a bonus point win, and either the Sharks or the Bulls only get a four point win, they’ll go through to the playoffs having more wins than those two. The Handicap looks great (still -8 available at bet365) but the Waratahs won’t make it easy for them . Still, we might have a small interest on it.
Stormers v Rebels markets/motivation need to be watched after the Hurricanes Chiefs game
Sharks v Cheetahs needs to be watched to see who they want to dodge and what the Reds do
Bulls v Lions is the same, so a watching brief on all of these.
Tune in to the site all day on Saturday, we’ll be updating super rugby developments on twitter (follow us there if you like and you have a twitter account) and we’ll sling up a post if any value on motivation and need presents itself (to our no doubt bleary eyes at that stage) based on the day’s early results. We do still like the handicaps mentioned above, and will have a small wager on them, and a decent sized one on this accumulator.
And now (drum roll please Doris,….)
The experimental super rugby accumulator (not tested on animals)….
Chiefs 4/6, Brumbies 4/11, Reds 1/4 in skybet is best price 1.84/1 ( so 1 Pound gets you 2 pound 78 back)
Or, if you fancy a bigger stake and want to make use of the bigger Free bet, you get SLIGHTLY less at Bet365
Chiefs, 4/7 Brumbies, 4/11, Reds 3/10 in Bet365 gets you 1.78/1 , or 28 quid for a tenner.
**If you fancy a Handicap punt, the two teams we think have the most dependable motivation, (and the fact that try bonus points make a real difference to them before other teams play) this weekend are the Reds and the Brumbies, both -7 at Betfred. The Reds are -9 and bigger everywhere else)**
**If you fancy a Handicap punt, the two teams we think with the most dependable motivation, (and the fact that try bonus points make a real difference to them) this weekend are the Reds and the Brumbies, both -7 at Betfred. The Reds are -9 and bigger everywhere else)**
Those are the two best priced accumulators available across the market for those three teams; it’s not worth adding in any of the small odds home favourites. We’ll keep an eye on the odds and update the top of this post if anything better comes available, but the likelihood is they’ll probably come in a bit if they move.
Should be good fun Saturday anyway, don’t forget to stop in or give us a shout on twitter.