Rugby Betting speculators
Ok, its christmas, last week took a lump out of the heating fund, and the kids are all out collecting scrap this week- time to speculate!
We’ve gone Toulouse (4/6), Clermont(4/9), Glasgow(2/5), Castres (2/7), Stade Francais (1/3) at 5/1 in paddypower – biggest overall price on the five teams currently.
Some brief reasoning;
Both Toulouse and clermont have won every game in the top 14 the week after Round 4 of the Heineken Cup for the last four years. They’re also both chasing Toulon for the top spot in the league and every point counts now, so they’ll both be after wins here (maybe more so than previous years). Clermont are in great form after beating Leinster away and name a strongish side (some concern with Radoslevic and Skrela in the halves starting) and there’s plenty of backup on the bench for their game on the road against an ordinary Bordeaux side.
Toulouse usually react well after a bad performance. In fairness the loss to the Ospreys was as much due to their abysmal handling as the Ospreys grinding them down for the full 80. Noves said publicly this week that his players are entitled to a slump every now and again – but you can bet he had them marching the canard at training during the week. I’m expecting a backlash from Toulouse – slight danger here is that Grenoble are unbeaten at home this season, but they’re missing their big game man Sowerby, which says to me they might be expecting a beating. Plus, they haven’t played any real quality at home in that unbeaten sequence.
Castres have either won (3 times) or drawn ( once, away) in the last four years after euro competition (three years Heineken cup). They’re an excellent side, rested a few last week, and are on a great run of form. Racing metro, despite winning last week at Edinburgh by 12 points, could easily have lost, and were very lucky that Edinburgh had a one legged pirate at ten (at least, his kicking (Piers Francis) seemed like he had one wooden leg). I’d be very surprised if this Racing side upset Castres here.
Stade Francais are on a good run in the Amlin Challenge Cup and Biarritz tend to do badly in the league after round four of European competition (they’ve lost the last four years running), and interestingly this is the exact same fixture from last year after round four, which Stade Francais won, beating Biarritz 23-10. Biarritz are on an awful league run, and last week’s slog in the bog against Connacht should have taken it out of them too.
Lastly Glasgow at home to Edinburgh in the Scottish derby. These tend to be close enough but Glasgow are at home with a seven point handicap. They look the stronger side to me, particularly in the backs, and that man Piers Francis (who last week against Racing metro was missing kicks by 20-30 metres wide of the posts at times) is kicking at ten for Edinburgh (assuming Laidlaw at scrumhalf isn’t kicking from the start). Lord knows what coach Bradley is at picking him again at ten, but he is. This Edinburgh side are massively low on morale and despite marginally having the better of it at home to Racing metro – they still haven’t scored a try or picked up a point in Europe in four rounds – that has to be a killer psychologically. After not scoring a try in so may European games, and not having an even semi-reliable kicker starting, it’s hard to see how Edinburgh get enough points to win this game so i’m happy to add Glasgow in here.
So there you have it, our first festive acca so far, prices biggest in PaddyPower at just over 5/1.
We’ve also taken a small interest in this same accumulator, but with leinster (2/1) and Scarlets (4/5) added in bringing the previous 5/1 to a handsome 30/1. The Scarlets have a better side out than Cardiff, and there’s definite mismatches in the backline and superiority for the Scarlets, particularly with North running at 18 year old Harry Robinson. This will likely be tight, but the Scarlets were decent enough at Exeter and while I couldn’t back them on a proper sized bet, adding them into the main acca for small money is ok.
Leinster at 2/1 are obviously the main danger of dashing in your small 30/1 punt onto the rocks, but Ulster are on a bad run – barely squeaking their last few league wins and losing at home to an ordinary Northampton side in the Heineken. With Pienaar, Cave and Jackson all starting here after DISMAL performances against Northampton, and a few bodies missing through injury, they can be got at. The Ulster freight train could be about to suffer a temporary loss of steam before they pick themselves up for round five in January. This leinster pack looks better to me and will be seeking a reaction after last week’s slight humiliation against Clermont at home. As above on the Scarlets, I won’t be backing the outright, but i’m happy tacking them onto this supplementary accumulator. I’ve already taken the +8 available in stanjames with a single on Leinster, and most bookies have seen money coming for them with handicaps contracting as low as +5 having started around seven or eight.
more to come on this thread and others later.
And don’t forget; you can get a total of £/€250 in free bets from Paddy Power through our links below, as opposed to the measly £/€50 you get if you join them directly.
more to come on this thread and others later.