Category Archives: Steve Walsh

South Africa v England Rugby Betting Preview, Tips, and Odds. June 23rd, 4pm GMT

South Africa v England Rugby Betting

Rugby Media Coverage

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Best Betting/Team Win Handicap
South Africa 1/4 williamhill -9 10/11 ladbrokes
England 4/1 sportingbet +10 evs bet365

South Africa v England Rugby Betting Preview, Tips, and Odds. June 23rd, 4pm GMT,

Form Guide

Last week’s game was manna from heaven for the bookies, with the final score landing right on the majority of handicaps at 9 points, and blasting us all out of the water. For England rugby wise, it didn’t end all bad with a strong comeback preventing a massacre when all seemed lost; just before half time you’d have been very brave to bet on the England rugby team outscoring South Africa in the second half. But second half fitness failed the Springboks once again and England rescued an acceptable loss from an unacceptable hammering.

Again there’s the tendency to say that like Wales, the shackles are off for England with the series being lost, and they can play with free reign. But it’s the same for the Springboks. England should come in with a bit more hunger but there’s a lot of changes in the side, and apart from Waldrom getting his first start, I don’t see where the physical power is going to come from to get England the win, but the likes of Tom Palmer is valuable in adding some ballast.

Relative to the seemingly one-sided nature to the game, there were some quite interesting stats out of last weekend. South Africa just shaded the possession stakes controlling the ball for 43 minutes against 37 for England, exactly the same figures as the week before. It seems South Africa are that bit more clinical with the ball, but without the fortuitous first try for the Springboks, perhaps England weren’t too far off a victory here, and they played some great rugby in the second half..

England lost 5 set piece balls to South Africa’s 3, and JP Pietersen was the stats man of the match, making 126 running metres and 4 of his team’s 6 line-breaks. We highlighted Pietersen was in line to have a big series in the first match preview and he’s certainly proving us right, and definitely one to watch for tries in this game. Based on those possession stats, if you had the same England team out, you’d fancy them to stay inside the handicap of ten this week. However the team is much changed, and arguably not for the better.

Teams

The Springboks make three changes to the starting 15, the most notable of which is Aplon in at full back for Lambie. Potgieter comes in for Alberts (last week’s first try) who is injured, and Wynand Olivier comes in for Steyn at inside centre, who is getting married. Aplon is a quality player that always punches above his weight, while Potgeiter shouldn’t weaken the side; playing well for the bulls this season. Olivier should offer something more subtle and different to Steyn, who I’ve never been crazy about, but he’s not playing well of late and is a possible weakness that Lancaster will likely look to target.

The England rugby team has six changes, so let’s start with the positives and then look at the negatives! I like Danny Care in, he had a good game midweek, and he’s the best scrumhalf in the squad. Waldrom will score a try on Saturday I reckon, or will at least carry a lot of ball and cause the springboks problems.  We highlighted that Morgan had a lot to live up to and was unproven at this level, and so it proved- he has done nothing really of note on tour and won’t have helped his future prospects in an English shirt.

On to the negatives. The brand Haskell has nothing to add here, and I’ll be surprised if he has a good game. Foden is on the left wing and yes, he played well in the first test with some crucial interceptions, but he’s not a left winger. This is an experiment by Lancaster make no mistake about it. Goode at full back is a quality player, with good instincts, but he’s not the fastest player and he could be caught for pace. Abendanon gets stick from some quarters, but he was excellent in defence and attack midweek, scoring a hat-trick, and he deserves a shot at full-back more than Goode I feel. He at least should have been on the bench, and he has to be disappointed. Corbisiero is in for Marler to start, and I can’t really see what advantage this is for England around the park.

So in short, I think England had a decent shot at winning this game with a full deck, but with the injuries, and the experimental nature of the some of the picks, you get the feeling that Lancaster won’t be too bothered if this doesn’t work out, as long as he learns something.

South Africa: 15 Gio Aplon, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Jacques Potgieter, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Werner Kruger, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Ryan Kankowski, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Elton Jantjies, 22 Bjorn Basson.

England rugby: 15 Alex Goode, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Manusamoa Tuilagi, 11 Ben Foden, 10 Toby Flood, 9 Danny Care, 8 Thomas Waldrom, 7 James Haskell, 6 Tom Johnson, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Tom Palmer, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Alex Corbisiero,
Replacements: 16 Lee Mears, 17 Joe Marler, 18 Mouritz Botha, 19 Phil Dowson, 20 Lee Dickson, 21 Owen Farrell, 22 Brad Barritt.

 

Rugby Betting Tips

  1. (Main bet) South africa have won both preceeding rugby matches by 1-12 points, and you can get 7/4 in williamhill and stanjames for this to happen again. South Africa should win this with the weakenesses in the English side, but the way they have fallen apart defensively in the the second halves of both games makes this one the pecentage pick. Its as short as 6/4 elsewhere. We might double this up with Wales 1-12 aswell.
  2. If you fancy England to get a win, then there’s value in the Halftime/fulltime SA/England at 12/1 in Betfred. Both games have followed a pattern of the Springboks best in the first half, and England playing most of the rugby in the second half. England have some decent bench fodder relative to South Africa, and the likes of Barritt, Botha and Marler can come on and make a big difference if things are still in the mix, we might even see Tuilagi pushed to the wing towards the end.
  3. Alternatively, there’s merit to the thinking that England will know they need a fast start, and for them to be leading at half time and SA at full time is biggest 13/2 in bet365.
  4. I like Waldrom anytime tryscorer at 11/2 in paddypower, ladbrokes and skybet, and I like Flood anytime try at 11/2 in ladbrokes. Don’t forget, paddypower are refunding all losing tryscorer bets if England win this game (first, last, anytime)
  5. Danny Care at 5/1 anytime try in boylesports is also decent value (shortened to 16/5 in paddypower)- he has something to prove, got one try midweek, and he’ll be on the ball sniping close to the opposition line for a fair bit of the second half you’d think, with a few quick taps to go with that. Really good value punt this.

If you fancy any of these there’s free bet detals on the home page.
Weather – looks like we’ll have a dry Friday and saturday in Port Elizabeth
Referee– Steve Walsh- should be fine.