Category Archives: Scotland rugby betting

Scotland v South Africa Rugby Betting

Scotland v South Africa Rugby Betting, South Africa -9 Stanjames, Scotland +11 victorchandler

Nov 17, 230pm GMT, BBC1

I have an odd feeling about this game. Based on last week and recent results you wouldn’t expect South Africa to run up a big score but they might just surprise alot of people this weekend. The game against Ireland was a dire affair and while they were rusty, South Africa were very negative and seemed intent on trying to take out the Irish players rather than just play the game. It gave the impression that South Africa were genuinely worried last week that they might lose. Had Sexton made that penalty just before half time they may indeed have lost – Ireland got cagey with only a 9 point lead though, and the rest is history.

One notable point about last week was Ireland’s inability to score a try (or even get near scoring one), with a very useful looking backline. After any initial minor breaks or go forward by Ireland, South Africa simply smothered any chance of further inroads. There were a couple of occasions where Ireland put some phases together but they were never really going anywhere. I’m comparing the backlines of Ireland and Scotland and I see no step up in class facing South Africa this week. There’s always Tim Visser but will he get the turnovers to score this week? I’m not sure. Plus, if last week is anything to go by, South Africa will probably target him like they did key Irish players last week – we all saw Pietersen’s yellow on Chris Henry (who had been having a great game up to the point he was nearly cut in two), and Johnny Sexton had to take it all game, from knees in the head to late charges off the ball. As Duckysauce said in our forum, Laidlaw will get the same treatment this Saturday and I’m not sure he’ll withstand it as well as Sexton did. The backup on the bench at ten for Scotland is very thin too.

In the forwards it’s also looking slightly bleak for Scotland. The South African pack will have shaken off the rust they had last week, and it’s far bigger than Scotland’s. Geoff Cross starts on the bench, and he was possibly Scotland’s best player last week. The All blacks simply had no answer to him on the burst and he was a huge reason they were able to compete last week in so many facets of the game. He’s on the bench because he’s carrying an injury, and you’d wonder whether he’ll get a run at all – it’s unlikely. Euan Murray starts in the front row and while he has had some great games in the past against South Africa, it will likely be a different story this weekend based on his form of the last two years and you fear for the Scottish scrum in general. To compound matters, gnarly backrow Strockosch (formerly of Gloucester, now part of a resurgent ball-playing Perpignan side) has been pulled as of Friday afternoon due to injury. He’s the man that Thompson semi-head-stamped last week, he’s a black-belt kung-fu master, and he’s well able for the rough stuff. Scotland will miss him, and it definitely weakens their back-row reserves against a powerful South African unit. Indeed the Scottish bench is nothing to write home about in general when you take the above into account. There’s very little impact and that’s a concern for the second half. The South African team is as strong as last week, but has a better front row with Steenkampf coming in. And the bench has plenty of impact – Heinke VDM and Brits coming in the front row on when things loosen up will cause alot of problems for Scotland. In our eyes, starting Steenkampf instead of the others means they intend to milk the scrum to get out in front early.

There’s three avenues that we deliberated over on this game. South Africa -9, South Africa 1-12, and South Africa half time handicaps. The stats in general point to South Africa eeking out a win of less than 12 points, and for them to start well and then to not have a great second half. This is based on the rugby championship in general, Scotland losing tight games to both England and France in the six nations, and on South Africa’s three games against England in June, where despite total dominance in the first half South Africa just weren’t arsed playing in the second.

On balance most of Saturday’s probabilities point to South Africa winning by 1-12 points but it’s a bet i’m not comfortable with as I reckon South Africa could really bludgeon their way even further ahead here. There’s revenge in the air, and like we said last week, it has played a big part in many games recently- look at France for example against Australia.

Main bet – (Medium stakes) Because of the scrum situation and because they won’t want to start off like last week, we’re taking South Africa -5 on the half time handicap at evens in Stanjames. It’s -5 everywhere else at 10/11 and you can get -4.5 in Bet365 at 4/5 if you don’t mind the return reduction for a point more safety. Looking at Scottish replacements there’s a line of thinking that the second half handicap of -5 would be the better pick but South Africa simply ease off in the second half of games, especially if they’re winning. This brings the SA 1-12 into play but you couldn’t count on Scotland reeling them back in again, and they may not get the turnover opportunities they got last week that brought two of their tries. It’s a bit of a minefield trying to figure out South African mentality, but after last week’s poor start, the best bet looks to be to expect a good South African first half as usual, and to not invest at all in an unpredictable second half, in which anything could happen.

Small stakes Tryscorer punt – Schalk Brits should come off the bench in the second half and he’s lethal in space. If things do loosen up (which they should) he’s a decent shot for last tryscorer, and he’s biggest 25/1 in Paddypower. Visser anytime tryscorer is a minor temptation but every single Scottish player has drifted out in price in Paddypower for the anytime tryscorer market so they don’t seem to be expecting any Scottish tries at all. Indeed, under 1.5 Scottish tries is as low as 4/9 in Ladbrokes.

Scotland v New Zealand Rugby Betting

Scotland v New Zealand Rugby Betting

Ok good weekend so far on site and in the forum, so let’s try make it a great one. Tricky game to call here but we may have a decent angle for you. This won’t be a long preview- because it doesn’t need to be.

When we first glanced at this weekend’s fixtures this one was singled out as the most difficult of the weekend to call on the handicap. The normally imperious All Blacks are the undoubted best team on the planet, but they’ve had a few small wobbles recently, and it’s enough to make you question whether they’ll be up for it 100%.

The real question is whether New Zealand are hungry enough to go after this handicap and on the face of things it’s too hard to call. They make ten changes to the team that drew with Australia away from home, with lots of international inexperience in the backline and in a few places throughout the pack. Players like on-form Aaron Smith and Read will be missed and Weepu is getting another chance for some reason. McCaw starts at seven and referees are watching him alot lately, and the fact is he’s slowing down a bit. So what am I getting at here you ask? Well, alot of people are saying that the new caps will be worse for Scotland as they’ll be really hungry (there’s that word again) to impress, and while that may be true this is not the starting 15 that blew everyone away in the Rugby Championship. Scotland will surely fancy themselves for more than their usual tally of points against New Zealand at home (less than ten) with the bits of attacking talent they have scattered around the team like Laidlaw and Visser.

So here’s the point; In New Zealand’s last four games away from home since the home June internationals the All Blacks have conceded 18,19,15 and 16 points. And that was with a 1st choice starting 15. Tomorrow with 10 changes and a bit of ring rustiness they won’t be at their defensive best. In good weather tomorrow they’ll probably beat this handicap but it’s not somthing we’re willing to put our money on. Instead we’re going to have a bet on Scotland..

No, we haven’t been drinking! (Much…). In seven games in 12 years Scotland have scored more than 10 points twice (both in New Zealand), and in none of those other 5 home games have they beaten ten points scored. However, tomorrow should be a bit different. They won’t know Visser well in the New Zealand camp and he’ll finish any chance he gets – Scotland haven’t had a finisher like him for a long time. Laidlaw can kick his goals capably enough too and the Scottish pack should secure some lineout ball with Hamilton and Grey there, and McCaw should give away enough kickable penalties that Scotland manage a decent enough score from the kicking tee. I see this game maybe panning out iight enough at the start with a few goals kicked either way, then it should open up. Scotland will hope to keep it tight after giving away so many tries so early the last time the All Blacks visited.

Main Bet- We’re backing Scotland over 11.5 points in Skybet at 10/11. It’s over 12.5 everywhere else and where there is over 11 elsewhere it’s only 4/5. As mentioned New Zealand can’t possibly be 100% at the races defensively and they’ve econceded more than 11 in their last four away games with a full side out (and not tomorrow’s ten changes). Two penalties and a late/early converted try for Visser or whoever (don’t rule out Lamont) is all it takes for this be to be a winner. Medium stakes.

Tryscorer punt – Cory Jane on the right wing is 2/3 in SKybet, but biggest 5/6 in Ladbrokes anytime try and is well worth a small stakes punt. He’s guaranteed to the on the end of a few attacking moves, and Visser is very suspect defensively.

Other than that, one other interesting punt is ‘A try to be scored before 12 minutes 30 seconds’ in bet365 at 5/6. New Zealand scored 3 here last time within the first nine minutes.

If there’s any other bets you fancy head on over to the forum.

Good luck!

Rugby Betting tips & Previews,Odds, Canada v Italy (3am), Fiji v Scotland (3am), Argentina v France (10pm),16th June (times GMT)

 

Rugby Media Coverage

Nothing official yet, likely to be streaming available.

Best Odds Betting/Team Win Handicap
Canada
5/2 bet365 -7 10/11 bet365
Italy 4/11 paddypower +8 10.11 paddypower

Canada v Italy Betting Preview 3am Gmt

Zanni and Barbieri will make a difference to this Italian team from the shambles that was hammered by the Argentinian second side last week, but you couldn’t back them for love nor money. Italy were awful last week, ( i mean AWFUL!) and they could have lost by much more. They have one area of advantage over Canada, the scrum, and even that was diabolical last week once the ball left out the back of it. Ok, so Italy do have a backrow advantage in Zanni, who is real class, and Canada are missing the legendary Kleeburger from the squad. This means that not only are Canada a little light in the back row, they’ll also lose out on major gate revenue from the world famous Rugby & Reard Afficionados Association of Canada, (RABAAC). Also, in a further shocking development, the planned flight charter to Toronto from my local Grizzly Adams Appreciation Society (GAAS) is now in jeopardy, with officials remaining tightlipped (presumably?) as to whether it will now go ahead as planned.

My advice is to probably give this one a miss betting-wise. Canada beat the USA, who are a good few places below them on the IRB ranking list, by only 3 points last week . If you fancy a few hours of “highlights” on this one, with some prosaic commentary, you can find it here) By all accounts the handling was sloppy and wasteful. But Canada have a pretty good coaching ticket, and in my betting wrap for last weekend, I mentioned how Italy just looked totally devoid of any decent coaching. So with home advantage, better coaches (four for Canada to Italy’s one), and more desire, Canada could cause an upset, or at least stayin the plus handicap.

If you’re really fiending for some action come 3am Saturday morning, call your local escort agency. Alternatively, wait until right before the game and see if the handicap goes out a bit further- Italy have no defence nor attack, so if you can get +10 or more on Canada, it would be worth a small wager. Canada are at home, and do have a few pros in their ranks, so they won’t be terrible. If you can find an anytime tryscorer market (none up right now, I will update), DTH Van der Merwe is your man at anything over 6/4. Venditti would be worth a punt too if you can get 2 or 3 to 1. Blind Dave Pearson is refereeing the game, and the weather is supposed to be good, but don’t back the overs whatever you do.

Canada: 15 James Pritchard, 14 Conor Trainor, 13 DTH Van der Merwe, 12 Mike Scholz, 11 Phil Mackenzie, 10 Matt Evans, 9 Sean White, 8 Aaron Carpenter, 7 Chauncey O’Toole, 6 Tyler Ardron, 5 Tyler Hotson, 4 Jebb Sinclair, 3 Jason Marshall, 2 Mike Pletch, 1 Hubert Buydens.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Tiedemann, 17 Tom Dolezel, 18 Jon Phelan, 19 Nanyak Dala, 20 Edward Fairhurst, 21 Liam Underwood, 22 Ciaran Hearn.

Italy: 15 Alberto Benettin, 14 Giovambattista Venditti, 13 Andrea Pratichetti, 12 Alberto Sgarbi, 11 Tommaso Benvenuti, 10 Kristopher Burton, 9 Tito Tebaldi, 8 Robert Barbieri, 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Alessandro Zanni, 5 Antonio Pavanello, 4 Joshua Furno, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni (c), 2 Tommaso D’Apice, 1 Michele Rizzo.
Replacements: 16 Carlo Festuccia, 17 Lorenzo Romano, 18 Marco Fuser, 19 Mauro Bergamasco, 20 Edoardo Gori, 21 Riccardo Bocchino, 22 Giulio Toniolatti.

Fiji v Scotland Betting Preview 3am Gmt

Rugby Media Coverage

ESPNUK

Best Odds Betting/Team Win Handicap
Fiji
5/1victorchandler +13 evs bet365
Scotland 1/6 bet365 -12 10/11 paddypower

Scotland really should be winning this one by 20+ points. Fiji have made 8 changes after losing narrowly to Samoa in the Nations Cup, and Scotland are off the back of a win away to Australia. Talei of Edinburgh, the FIJI captain, is making alot of noise about how this is a huge game for Fijian guys to put their hand up to European clubs, and he’s right of course. But when you think that Fiji had their first team out against Samoa, in a game they really wanted to win, they can’t be anything but disappointed.

With a starting 15 of top flight professionals, and one recognisable European based player for Fiji (Talei) and with finishers such as Hogg and Visser starting, Scotland should beat the handicap of -12 at paddypower. When anytime tryscorer markets come out, if there’s anything better than 6/4 for both Hogg and Visser, we’ll be taking it.

** updated pick- if you are indeed staying up late for this one, and want something to get you through it, over 4.5 tries at 5/6 in ladbrokes and paddypower looks a good pick. Scotland won’t be out for anything but tries, Visser and Hogg should get Scotland firing, and Fiji should get a one or couple too. Probably a better pick than the handicap albeit at a slightly lower price**

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Max Evans, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 Scott, 11 Visser, 10 Greig Laidlaw, 9 Mike Blair, 8 John Barclay, 7 Ross Rennie, 6 Alasdair Strokosch, 5 Richie Gray, 4 Alastair Kellock, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Ross Ford (c), 1 Ryan Grant.
Replacements: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Geoff Cross, 18 Tom Ryder, 19 Richie Vernon, 20 Chris Cusiter, 21 Duncan Weir, 22 Sean Lamont.

Fiji: 15 Isimeli Koniferedi, 14 Waisea Nayacalevu, 13 Wereniki Goneva, 12 Aloisio Buto, 11 Watisoni Votu, 10 Jonetai Ralulu, 9 Nikola Matawalu, 8 Netani Talei, 7 Malakai Ravulo, 6 Iliese Ratuva, 5 Leone Nakarawa, 4 Apisai Naikatini, 3 Setefano Somoca, 2 Viliame Veikoso, 1 Jeremaia Yanuyanutawa.
Replacements: 16 Tuatpati Talemaitoga, 17 Waisea Daveta/Graham Dewes, 18 Josefa Domolailai, 19 Kelepi Ketedromo, 20 Nemia Kenatale, 21 Kameli Ratuvou, 22 Metuisela Talebula.

Argentina v France Betting Preview 10.10 pm gmt

Rugby Media Coverage

Nothing official yet, likely to be streaming available from France.

Best Odds Betting/Team Win Handicap
Argentina
13/8 bet365 +3 10/11 padypower
France 8/13 paddypower -3 10.11 paddypower

paddypower is the only bookie with prices up at this time, we will update when better ones appear.

Argentina have continued in a slightly experimental vein by not playing their srongest team, seemingly saving them for the Four Nations tournament later this summer. Despite having a weaker team than this out last week v Italy, they still managed to hammer Italy’s first side without Parisse. No matter how bad Italy were, this was still an achievment for alot of Argentina based players, who all seem to be seriously hungry to make up the numbers and get on this Four Nations tour. That hunger is not to be underestimated here.

The fact remains though that not much of this Pumas side is recognisable to outsiders if you look past Contepomi, Lozada (Edinburgh), Mieres (Exeter),and Tuculet who has been swithed to outside centre from full back, where he normally plays for Sale Sharks.

Saint Andre was supposed to be playing a younger side than he has put out, and he seems caught in two minds here, mixing the very old with the very new. I think it’s best to ignore the fact that he’ll learn nothing here, and just ask whether France will be motivated enough to come out and front up. I think they will. There’s far too much class in this French team to lose this game once they turn up, but with the cap at -3, and the weather due to be 35 degrees (probably a bit lower at 6 o’clock their time) there’ll be some tired bodies in the second half. I think the better bet is France to win by 1-12 points with Argentinian hunger for touring spots keeping them in touch (i’ll put the best odds up when markets are out) and the second half to have more points than the first with fatigue seting in for defences. Picamoles off the back of a scrum move should get a try- Italy had countless moves last week that went nowhere, but if Picamoles had been playing he could have scored a hatrick.  Ouedrago could be good fo a punt too, odds dependent of course. Again, i’ll update odds as they appear.

The referee is George Clancy, and many seasoned punters would argue that whatever way the market moves, back the opposite way.  That’s up to you.

Argentina: 15 Roman Miralles, 14 Belisario Agulla, 13 Joaquin Tuculet, 12 Felipe Contepomi (captain), 11 Manuel Montero, 10 Ignacio Mieres, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Tomas Leonardi, 7 Tomas De la Vega, 6 Julio Farias Cabello, 5 Esteban Lozada, 4 Benjamin Macome, 3 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 2 Bruno Postiglioni, 1 Eusebio Guinazu.
Replacements: 16 Andres Bordoy, 17 Pablo Henn, 18 Rodrigo Bruno, 19 Rodrigo Baez, 20 Tomas Cubelli, 21 Benjamin Urdapilleta, 22 Facundo Barrea.

France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Jean Marcellin Buttin, 13 Wesley Fofana, 12 Florian Fritz, 11 Yoann Huget , 10 Francois Trinh Duc, 9 Morgan Parra , 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Fulgence Ouedraogo, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Yoan Maestri, 4 Pascal Pape (c), 3 David Attoub, 2 Dimitri Szarzewski, 1 Yvan Watremez.
Replacements: 16 Christopher Tolofua, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Romain Taofifenua, 19 Alexandre Lapandry, 20 Maxime Machenaud, 21 Frederic Michalak, 22 Maxime Mermoz.