Premiership Singha Sevens – Rugby Betting preview
7Aug 2016 Coventry
14:00 Cardiff Blues 7s vSale Sharks 7s Ricoh Arena
14:25 Exeter Chiefs 7svNorthampton Saints 7s
14:50 Harlequins 7s v Wasps 7s
15:15 Newcastle Falcons 7svOspreys 7s
Image taken from BetterRugbyCoaching.com
Assume teams are the same as last week unless mentioned below.
Having watched all four of the group stages for the sevens this year, I was very aware that the bookies were way off on their prices on multiple games. On the live chat here, we were nailing it in running, particularly the game where they had Sale at +5 in the game they won by 50 points.
Without giving too much away to them, there is still money to be made judging by the prices they’ve come out with. And the real opportunity here will be in the second and final round of games.
The main contenders are Wasps, Exeter, and Harlequins – no other team are capable of winning this from the eight finalists.
In order of the games;
Premiership rugby Sevens Quarter 1 preview – Cardiff v Sale
Cardiff were lucky enough to come through to top the group at the last minute v the Dragons. There is no doubt that the referee 100% favoured Cardiff, handing the Dragons two yellow cards, the first of which was a complete sham, and just when the Dragons were about to put them to bed. The second card was merited. In this instance (bizarrely for me) I was glad to see a spot of buggery from the ref, they deserved it – the ref was no doubt disgusted at some of the twat behaviour of one or two of the Dragons lads. To summarise – Cardiff were fortunate to top the group after scraping past the Ospreys.
Sale sharks had an easy enough group. They possess two or three quality players, and they definitely eased off against Newcastle to ensure they had reserves to come second in the group. They had a nice schedule which helped. The result against Leicester of over fifty points is best taken with a pinch of salt as Leicester had a couple of yellows in their previous game which was back to back before this one. And they received a yellow in this one too – they were completely out on their feet basically.
Despite the above, and the presence of Odogwu the tryscorer for Sale, I slightly fancy Cardiff here to take this – they have more Sevens players, and were that bit more consistent. Sale are a bit more disorganised. This is the hardest of the games to call and probably best left in running.
Premiership rugby Sevens Quarter 2 preview – Exeter v Northampton
Northampton have removed three or four lads bizarrely from the side that got them here, a ridiculous decision by management when they could have competed – with Collins and Pacman in partiular being standouts last week. Pacman and Collins are out, which means there is NO question that Exeter will win this. And there’s no point in me going into Saints and what they did/how they played – they’re now the worst side and will more than likely finish bottom in the shield too.
Exeter should win well – they won’t go nuts because they’ll be trying to keep energy for the next two games. Expect Exeter to ease up after putting them away early. The Exeter key man is Simmonds, pure quality – and Bodily is also key. If they can keep them fit for all the games, they have an outside shot of winning this tournament – I have no interest in the 7/2 available though, it’s no value. I have Ex even with Wasps in terms of quality for this final day, even with Wasps’ additions.
Premiership rugby Sevens Quarter 3 Preview – Harlequins 7s v Wasps 7s
The clash of the Heavyweights. Wasps have brought in Wade and Guy Thompson, Umaga also who was due to play last week but was injured. Rob Miller though, who was so key to stringing play together for them, is out. No Simpson or Robson like last year either. Halai is playing well but he did look tired from preseason. De Luca is a good sevens player.
Looking at the Wasps side you can see why the bookies have cut them with those big names, and Wade’s elusiveness is of course a huge asset.
Quins on the other hand, are basically a sevens side. All serious athletes. Cam Cowell and Mikalcius are absolute beasts and international sevens players. Cheesman and all of the young lads are involved in the sevens too. And they’ve made one change and brought in another sevens junior.
Quins are the better side, better organised, better drilled, better ball skills and they have a fundamental understanding of Sevens. Versus a few sevens player for Wasps and the three Premiership players.
Things like clearing out rucks, ball presentation, the right and wrong lines of running, will all come into play as instinct for the Quins lads in the final five minutes of this game, and that will be where the game is won and lost. Defensively once they can keep Wade shut down, they should be fine with a far superior defensive structure. Watch out for Mikalcius, he’s an absolute horse.
It’s no secret in the forum that I believe Quins have the better side and I make them favourites for this whole tournament. We had them at 7 to 1 for the group in the qualifiers and it waltzed in. If you’re interested in the odds that are …ahem…fairly decent for Quins (and too big), check here.
This is of course a knockout and a game of sevens, and anything can happen – and Wasps are at home (although it is Coventry…) the ref may feel in true Union fashion that he needs to keep the big names like Wade in the main cup final knockouts by buggering Quins and fixing this game with some bizarre decisions, but LET’S HOPE my cynicism is not merited, and we will all see a FAIR REFEREEING performance, and not one that looks after commercial interests and hoping to keep Wade in the headlines so they get good copy in the media afterwards.
So if we get that, Quins should win, and likely it’s them and Exeter in the final once they avoid each other. Quins are the better side by far in this tournament.
Premiership rugby Sevens Quarter 4 Newcastle Falcons 7s v Ospreys 7s
Newcastle are not as good as they were last year and are a fair bit off the pace. They do have some game changers like Pampers, but he’s prone to error and they don’t have enough good all-rounders bar the two premiership lads.
The Ospreys are depleted – have brought in a few, one sevens player from Wales, so they might win a game if they come up against Northampton, otherwise it’s bottom of the pile more than likely.
Newcastle will win this game, but an Exeter/wasps/or Quins would wipe the floor with them. They might make a final but won’t win.
And that’s your lot for now – if you’re interested in joining the forum it’s free – and I can’t stress enough that you should check out that price on Quins for a tournament in which they are undoubted favourites once we get fair refereeing.