Premiership Rugby Betting Round 21
Quality commentary by Legend from the betting forum
Friday 8th May
Harlequins v Bath
Saturday 9th May
Sale v Newcastle
Gloucester v London Irish
Saints v London Welsh
Wasps v Leicester
Sunday 10th May
Saracens v Exeter
Pressure. Who is going to cope with it the best? Players with experience tend to, so teams who have been in these high pressure games, internationally and at club level, should fare better. Youngsters can often be better at coping as they tend to be more fearless in these situations. However, players or teams who get in these positions and then tend to fall at the last hurdle have demons that hang over them and cause below par performances. This weekend will be interesting as there is a lot at stake for those three teams chasing a play off spot. Also the battle for a home play off game is also in the balance.
The first game on Friday screams back Bath -3 (early line from Unibet, etc..) but if you look a little deeper at their record at the Stoop, it doesn’t make pleasant reading for a Bath supporter. They haven’t won a Premiership game there in their last 6 meetings. But a factor to take in to those games though was that Quins were the favourites. They were at those times in a better place than Bath. If you look back Quins have been a top 4 team for a while now or considered one. Bath have been a work in progress and are in a far better place than Quins now I think we would all agree. So the question is….. will Bath now push on and secure that second spot?
I will put up cap stats but I must admit I think in some cases they become a little irrelevant at this stage of the season, as funny things can happen. I believe patterns tend to form after a few rounds in and stop with a few rounds to go. So I wouldn’t read too much in to them.
Quins have had a poor season covering at home (3-7, 1-1 on a positive cap at home) and they have lost to 4 teams above them in the table but have beaten Leicester and Wasps. They have won their last two games at home against Gloucester and Irish, so recent form is better. It’s not phenomenal but it is better. Bath on the other hand have been good away from home. Their W/L record away is 5-5 and is exactly the same on the caps 5-5. But interestingly when they have been dogged with the favourite tag they have achieved a 4-1 record on a negative cap below 7. They seem to get over the line when they are perceived the favourite in a one score cap. I like that in a team. It’s when they keep losing these ones that worries me. This is a good sign for Bath backers but as I said earlier tis is a funny stage of the season where strange things can happen.
This game is difficult and I keep swinging from one thought to the other. I think it’s a Bath 1-12 market for this with very low stakes or nothing at all. Another angle would be to hope the Bath cap gets bigger and that the Quins team points total gets lower and back that. I think Quins will get a few points in this game.
Sale and Newcastle is a tricky one, as you need to know the attitude of these two teams as neither have anything to play for. Sale can’t qualify for Europe and Newcastle can’t finish higher than 11th. Do they fight passionately to preserve home records or noticeable progress and development, or do they down tools and call it a day to a hard season. From what I have seen from these two teams in the past it would seem Sale tend to take their foot off the pedal, particularly at home for some reason. In the last five times Sale have met Newcastle at home the Falcons have won 3 out of the 5. Slightly surprising. Not as far to travel? Sale taking their eye off the ball against weaker opposition?
Anyway on the caps it’s incredibly even. Sale are 7-3 at home and Newcastle are 7-3 away. On a negative home cap Sale are 5-1 after giving up their 100% record to Quins last week (4-1 on negative caps 7 or below). Newcastle are 6-3 on positive caps away from home. So there is not a lot we can take from that really. Both look good. I think a good healthy cap on Newcastle would be the only option for this one.
Gloucester v London Irish. Now this has potential. What will be the mentality of Gloucester? They are poor at home only covering 3 of their 10 home games. Alright some teams only look to win games they are not interested in covering caps for the betting man, so we need to look a bit deeper. Their W/L record is equally bad with 5-1-4 record and it seems they only bring out the performances when they play a big name. The only trouble is Irish have not got a very impressive record at Kingsholme winning 1 out of the last 6. They played each other at a similar stage of the season last year and the score was 38-30.
Gloucester will they open up now the shackles are off them and relax and play their open attacking rugby or will they, as teams often do after a big game, switch off and think of the games coming ahead for European qualification? That is the one to decipher. If it is the latter, which I tend to think will be the case, there is a great chance with a healthy positive cap on the Irish. As the Irish tend to finish their season strongly as I said last week. Although last week they struggled to stay with Bath after a decent start.
I would be looking closely at the Irish cap for this one.
Saints should secure the bonus point win and then rest up I would imagine. I can’t believe they will look to amass a huge score. They might do I suppose, throw the ball around, use it as a training exercise. But I’d be surprised if players are going to be feeling full of life and energy and wanting to go hell for leather in this one. There is a good chance of a massive cap for Welsh as Saints, as Champions, have been hit very hard with their home caps. They also have had a tendency to just get the job done apart from that first game of the season against Gloucester.
The Wasps game should be a belter along with the one on Sunday at Saracens. These two games are massive.
Wasps are the better team in comparison to Leicester at the moment. The only thing that isn’t is their respective league positions. But that could change on Saturday. Whoever wins this game will be, in my opinion, in the box seat to take the final play off spot. I’m struggling to see anything but a Wasps win in this game. The only thing that could go against them is the lack of big game experience, but they have had a season that has involved some big games, as they were competing right to the end in their Heineken Group stage and battled hard with players missing at Toulon, the eventual winners. So they have experience in some respects.
It’s just the nagging feeling that Leicester always make the play offs. However this has to end some day doesn’t it? Is there a shift from Quins and Leicester in the top four to teams like Bath, Wasps and Exeter now? You can just see a typical massive Leicester performance that sees them to victory. You wouldn’t rule it out. They did beat Toulon, so there is that glimmer of possibility.
I don’t think their record on the caps is very relevant here, but Wasps are 8-2 at home and Leicester are 3-7. Worse than that for the Tigers is that they have been given 5 positive away caps and only covered 1. Extraordinary really that firstly they have received so many and then only covering 1 suggests a drop off from their usual standards. Wasps are 6-2 on the negative home caps.
I would say Wasps on a small negative would be the only route or perhaps a 1-12.
Finally the Sunday game. Saracens have all to play for and so do Exeter. It’s a known fact that home semi-finals are crucial to reaching a final spot, so I’d expect an all guns blazing performance from the Wolf pack here. In which case I’d find it difficult to make a case for Exeter. All their hopes went last week I’m afraid. They needed to beat Wasps and then hoped Wasps did them a favour against Leicester and then all they had to do was win against Sale to make the play offs. Now they are not going to think that of course that’s just how I see it.
The Chiefs played far better than I expected last week and it was only a piece of opportunist brilliance by Simpson sunk them. However, Wasps really should have put them away. Away from home they have covered 4 from 10 and they have failed to do so in their last 2. They are 2-6 outside the International windows as well being 1-4 with positive caps.
Saracens on the other hand have been gaining momentum. Good European performances and recent home league performances have put them in decent form coming in to the latter stages of the league season. They had before that looked a bit vulnerable and out of sorts. They have covered 3 of their last 4 league games at home and I would be looking at Saracens pushing for a bonus point win in this one so that they can sneak that second spot from Bath. Due to the big game situation I would be hoping for a cap in single figures, but fear it will be bigger than that which would make a bet very difficult as I see Saracens winning this well.