Top 14 rugby betting – Semi thoughts 2014

Top 14 rugby betting

Some early thoughts up for this weekend’s TOP 14 semi finals. There’s an overall lack of pattern but some interesting history there nonetheless.

First, a table of results from the past 5 years of TOP 14 semi final playoffs. The middle column contains the semi final lineups for that year, the third colum shows the previous results that season for teams contesting those semi-finals.

[table id=35 /]

As you can see, there’s not many patterns other than the lack of an overall pattern.

In general though Look at Clermont’s results after winning in 2010 – they just don’t seem to have the hunger anymore after those many years waiting – look at 2012 for example – they had Toulon beaten well home and away in the season and then lost the semi at home.

There seems to be a certain amount of keeping the powder dry in March when teams play away from home – Probably because the hard work has been done and they have a plan on where they are going to finish. Also, there must be an element of not wanting to show your full hand against a potential playoff contender.

In general ( i say general as one or two out of kilter on this) but the teams that tend to win the semi’s are the teams that did well in the shit in winter against each other.

You get the feeling that Castres were building a side, and there is a clear progression to winning last year’s semi final, and then of course final.

Toulon have been in the semi-mix since 2012, and the progression suggests they are on here. I have also been saying from the start that this is what they want this year after coming so close, and so many big names in the side want it in their trophy cabinets. However, this is where their big names let them down I think – and their LACK of French players. I feel like the Bouclier means so much more to the teams with more frenchies, and I think this is a passion that the mercs in Toulon find it hard to counter each year at the crunch end of the season. The European cup is a different story unless you’re playing an Irish side in their prime, which neither Munster or Leinster were this season.

Racing Metro might seem like a foreign squad too, but check this out, it’s nearly all Frenchies, with a driven Irishman in Sexton the main man. 

Sexton is likely back in Ireland next year for my money, and his motivations here are unquestionable – not many Irishmen have won the TOP14.

As you can see I’m spit-balling alot here. But in general some trends are pointing to Castres being happy with last year, and Racing being in with a major shout v Toulon ( a side they’ve had no fear of in recent years too).

Look how poor Clermont went in the league playoffs after winning it in 2010. Look how utterly static Toulouse have gone since the 2011 and 2012 wins, plodding along and underperforming. Stade Francais and Biarritz in a similar vein from the years before.

Castres beat Montpellier in the Barrage last year 25 – 13 so there’s a BIG element of revenge here for Monty. Racing Metro were knocked out in the Barrage last year by Toulouse 33-19 – they were not going to let that happen again this year and look what happened – they won this time around last week. They also have last year’s winning coaches on board, who masterminded a shock Bouclier win last year ( though some people in the forum kept saying Castres were being underestimated).

In 2012 in the Barrages, Castres yet again knocked Montpellier out by the 25 – 12, and Toulon knocked Racing out by 17-13.

Both Monty and Racing are coming into these games with arguably more french hunger, and with major chips on their shoulders.

We’re not set in our bets on this yet, but hopefully the above will help, and some of you can help narrow the meaning of it all.

There’s a list of Free Rugby bets here

And lots more top 14 info and opinion in our Rugby Betting forum here, with the current thread in the private contributing members area, to be released on Friday at 4.

Rugby Betting tips – Premiership & Rabo round 21

Rugby Betting tips – Premiership & Rabo round 21

There’s only two games left for each of the teams vying for playoff and European places in both the Rabo and Premiership. Friday nights can be unpredictable sods to back at times during the year but we’ve a few situations tonight that should re-enforce our betting logic that can so often go astray on nights like these. So let’s take a quick look at tonight’s most interesting games.

Premiership Rugby – Bath v Northampton 745 Bt Sport

Bath have floundered in these kind of games all season and they struggled to put Wasps away in the Challenge cup last week, despite dominating for most of the game. There’s a mental block in this side and I was tempted to fear for them tonight against a Saints side with nothing to really play for. Saints are second in the table and 7 points ahead of both Tigers and bath with just two games to go. Theoretically Bath or Tigers could catch them for the second home semi final spot but it’s very unlikely due to the fact Northampton have Wasps at home in the final round, and it’s very hard to see a light enough Wasps pack winning that.

On the other hand Bath have to win this game at all costs, as if they don’t , Quins will go away to a hapless and bottling Exeter side on Sunday and beat them, knowing they have Bath at home in the final round to take the final playoff spot and destroy a promising season for Bath (keep an eye on this result and betting odds regarding Exeter- If Bath win tonight, Quins are out of the reckoning and have no motivation to win at Exeter on Sunday, while Exeter still have a hope of a European playoff spot in 7th if they win and Wasps get hammered at Saints next week).

Thus, we have a home side tonight who need to win at all costs, and a Saints side coming away with no pressure on them and a few England Internationals looking for a healthy run out. While it has been tempting to look at Saints here due to slightly better form, the fact is they have no need to put bodies on the line and Bath do, and in rugby that’s all important. Saints have a better backrow with Bath missing both Garvey and Luow, but the backs for Bath are better once they concentrate and click, the second row overall is evens enough with Attwood back for bath (despite Lawes’ fantastic form), and the bath front row is far better than the Saints opposition (who are missing Hartley of course, amongst others). It’s David Wilson, Rob Webber, & Paul James for Bath versus Salesi Ma’afu, Ross McMillan, & Alex Waller and that’s all in favour of Bath.

I think Bath win this out of necessity and though they’ll do their best to shag it up as they so often do, they should fall over the line and secure the playoff spot with home advantage and a Saints side who will definitely show up, but who have absolutely no need of a win with top spot in the Premiership well out of sight. It’s also in the league’s interests for some new blood to be in the top 4 after recent years, so I can’t see the referee Matt Carley being anything but sympathetic to them.

Premiership Rugby Bets for tonight
– bath are 10/11 to win in Paddypower and that’s a solid enough pick. If you’re on lower stakes the 1-12 is 13/8 in Bet365 and Coral, and it’s hard to see them winning by more than 10. Rob Webber is 10/1 anytime try in skybet and 5s elsewhere, get some of that for small money before it disappears, he got two last week and is always a threat.

Rabo Pro 12 betting tips

Ulster v Leinster, BBC and RTE 730pm

Thanks to the Ospreys and the utterly uncommitted and arrogant garbage they coughed up in last night’s loss to Zebre, Ulster now only need a point from their remaining games to get a playoff spot. They play Leinster at home this week and then Munster away in the final round, and they only have to get one point out of both of those games; tonight is obviously the best one to target. Leinster meanwhile do not have top spot secured just yet ( and thus a home final if they win their semi), and are only five points ahead of Glasgow. Glasgow have treviso away this week, and Zebre at home next week – so nine points are very attainable for them. Leinster meanwhile have Edinburgh away in the final round after Ulster tonight.

You can follow the logic; Leinster need a win, and Ulster need a losing bonus point at least. Leinster to win anyone? The teams named stack up in Leinster’s favour, with a strong starting 15 and a strong bench, with front row starters and replacements particularly strong for Leinster. Ulster are still missing Pienaar and Best of course, and without those key men they’re two thirds the side they can be. Indeed if Joe Schmidt started the entire Leinster 15 playing tonight for Ireland in a six nations game (bar Kirchner of course) not too many eyebrows would be raised bar some big hairy Munster one’s (teams listed at the bottom of this post). Ulster could of course win tonight with a side that’s still full of quality, particularly in the backs, but Leinster need this win more, and have sent their main men North for victory. Watch out for an interesting battle between the incumbent Ireland centre BOD and the future 13 Jared Payne.

Rabo Pro 12 betting Tip for tonight – back Leinster to win at evens in skybet, they’re shorter everywhere else. Personally I’m on the 1-12 but I wouldn’t recommend it due to the fact that if Leinster got a bonus point win here they’d be almost set for home semi and final. Don’t back the 13+ either though because the odds are rubbish at 5/1. There’s a niggle in the back of my head though this may happen, thanks to Sportscompiler in the forum pointing out that this is an opportunity for Leinster to help get rid of a dangerous playoff opponent in Ulster potentially. Leinster should win this barring any brainfarts either way, with a solid no risk gameplan in the first half- Ulster are not great chasers.

Also rans – I also like Glasgow to pip Treviso by 1-12 points away from home (best 6/4 in ladbrokes). Glasgow need the win to keep their home semi final on course ahead of Munster and Treviso need at least a point to make sure they get Europe ahead of Zebre. Again, two dovetailing ambitions that should lead to the 1-12 coming in – fingers crossed for a logical night

There’s a list of Free Rugby bets here

And lots more top info and opinion in our Rugby Betting forum here

Ulster: 15 Ricky Andrew, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Luke Marshall, 11 Tommy Bowe, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Paul Marshall, 8 Nick Williams, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Roger Wilson, 5 Iain Henderson, 4 Johann Muller (capt), 3 Andrew Warwick, 2 Rob Herring, 1 Tom Court.
Replacements: 16 Niall Annett, 17 Callum Black, 18 Adam Macklin, 19 Dan Tuohy, 20 Sean Doyle, 21 Michael Heaney, 22 James McKinney, 23 Darren Cave.

Leinster 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Zane Kirchner, 13 Brian O’Driscoll, 12 Gordon D’Arcy, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Ian Madigan, 9 Isaac Boss, 8 Jamie Heaslip (capt), 7 Shane Jennings, 6 Rhys Ruddock, 5 Mike McCarthy, 4 Devin Toner, 3 Martin Moore, 2 Sean Cronin, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Richardt Strauss, 17 Jack McGrath, 18 Mike Ross, 19 Leo Cullen, 20 Jordi Murphy, 21 Luke McGrath, 22 Jimmy Gopperth, 23 Luke Fitzgerald.